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notebook - Nassim Nicholas Taleb Home & Professional Page notebook - Nassim Nicholas Taleb Home & Professional Page
Opacity: What We Do Not See . A Philosophical Notebook, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The mathematical version is here. Non philosophorum sed philosophiae historiae

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But finite at which values?forget statistics, this it is a blatant violation of elementarytrading, something that uneducated traders and stockbrokers understand. The japanese nuclear commission had the following goals set in 2003 the mean value of acute fatality risk by radiation exposure resultantfrom an accident of a nuclear installation to individuals of thepublic, who live in the vicinity of the site boundary of the nuclearinstallation, should not exceed the probability of about 1x106 peryear ( that policy was designed only 8 years ago. What they missed is thatthe nonlinearity of probability of harmful events automaticallydetermine nonlinearity in survival, hence concavity of harm.

I spent the last two decades explaining (mostly to financeimbeciles, but also to anyone who would listen to me) why we should nottalk about small probabilities in any domain. Of historys great erudites, perhaps the mostremarkable is thoughtmontaigne was ignorant and ungroomed in the classics held scaliger ingreatest respect. In the financialmarkets, there are at least ten thousand time more events of.

Aggregation of notes on the history of medicine as i am writing mylong chapter on iatrogenics. They may collectively miss on a central idea ofthe author --something the fresh reader may get. Commeindices plaidant en faveur de cette orientation empirique chezscribonius, on peut noter la place de choix acordée a lapharmacologie, le respect scrupuleux des , de meme quelabsence dinteret pour la connaissance des choses cachées.

It was a great surprise when a few hours later, iopened my mail and saw john grays book with a handwritten note fromhim. Many greek cypriots still speak the language calledcypriot maronite arabic, that is, 12 centuries after their settlementand integration in the greek side of the island. Erudition is wealth, robust knowledge, being alive it isorganic diversification & signals open mindedness.

When asked whatshould we do, i replied just listen to john gray. Canaanite and arabicare easily mutually comprehensible (the distance between semiticlanguages is very short, a corrollary of the stability thanks to thetriplet of consonnants). Many words that are in arabicbut not common in aramaic happen to be in north-phoenician (ugaritic).

If you compute thefrequency of a rare event and your survival depends on such event taking place (such as nuclear events), then you underestimated that probability. The mere existence ofsuch regress argument will lead to two different regimes, both leadingto the necessity to raise the values of small probabilities, and one ofthem to the necessity to use power law distributions. The storywas very well known in antiquity, under a more elegant form, as retoldby montaigne i, 42 (my transl. To me it is mostly about in my life, outside of intense moments, freedom, work withoutconstraints, unpredictability in my day, lounging whenever i feel likeit, minimal contact with businessmen & other half-men, etc. For aphilistine, verdis is not new, since it soundslike another opera he heard by mozart with women torturing theirthroat.


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Dissertation Faute Responsabilit Fait Personnel We canuse the same argument by replacing measurement by estimation (sayestimating the future value of an economic variable, the rainfall inbrazil, or the risk of a nuclear accident), Ifone is antifragile to x. Inaddition, Why do we need to focus treatment on more serious cases, notmarginal ones? Take this example showing nonlinearity. No matter how high your cap,it can be topped by another one (albeit with a declining probabilityunder unimodal distributions). Had i written abook about the black swan idea almost nobody would have read it. Apresavoir montré quil nexiste pas de representation telle quellediffere dune fausse, lacademicien propose de se fier a ce qui estpersuasif, apremiere vue il sagit donc de la traduction de ladjectif grecpithanon. com's weekly/monthly splash page. Christians are arabs, likewise, today when a westerner tells a lebanese shiite that he has a separate ethnicity, he is baffled. The measurement of the error rate will have an errorrate.
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    In the financialmarkets, there are at least ten thousand time more events of. They are made aware of it, yet they usually gainweight after diagnosis (she mentioned atkins among the options, so itwas not just ama low-fat. Theupper bound is h(x) -1f(x) where f(x) is the probabilityof harm asin the figure below. There are close to eight thousand micro-earthquakesdaily on planet earth, that is, those below 2 on the richter scaleabout three million a year. When a westerner says jew, he means a race, or in thecase of slavs, a nationality.

    King pyrrhus tried to cross intoitaly, cynéas, his wise adviser, tried to make him feel the vanity ofsuch action. Just as chess skills only help you in chess (we know that those whocan play chess games from memory dont have strong memory for othermatters), classroom math only helps in classrooms, weight training ingyms almost only helps you in gyms, a specific sport almost only helpsyou in that specific sport, and walking on smooth euclidian surfacescauses injuries somewhere deep inside your soul. These fellows were not option traders their workwas mistakenly focused on nonlinearity of preferences (which they gotwrong since preferences are not concave, but convex-concave and pathdependent as shown by kahneman & tversky). Scalinger had such a hunger for texts he read hebrew& arabic. Semitic languages being based on the triplet ofconsonnants --using vowels mainly for declensions -- are very stable(the drift in cypriot maronite arabic appears very small).

    Protagoras who assented for the sake ofargument with one of his statement i do not think an argumentsvalidity can be tested unless these ifs are removed from it. Even marseilles seems to come from marsa, port in canaanite(and not from massilia the roman name since the romans did not makenames, but transcribed them). Which is also, from a risk managementstandpoint, why i can safely predict that any enterprise managed by acertain class of rigorous idiot savants using a certainclass of certainties would blow up. In fact, people continued to refer tospirits and humors, and doctors continued to prescribe phlebotomies,enemas, and cataplasms, for centuries more --even when it wasestablished in the mid-1800, most notably by louis pasteur, thatgerms were the cause of disease. It is necessary to engage someone who is wrong, butimpossible to engage someone who is not even wrong. Empiricism is not about having beliefs it is about avoiding to be a sucker, a decided andpreset bias on where you want your error to be where the defaultis. Note that gibbon, though luminous, is not in the same league --oneof the finest english prose writers, but not exceedingly broad in hisknowledge since he was just classically trained, and not deeply at that--his sources are concentrated (mostly diodorus siculus, ammianusmarcellinus, procopius i think). Lindy-proof, that is, have anantecedent in the classics otherwise it will not replicate or not generalize beyond theexperiment. I spent the last two decades explaining (mostly to financeimbeciles, but also to anyone who would listen to me) why we should nottalk about small probabilities in any domain. The mere existence ofsuch regress argument will lead to two different regimes, both leadingto the necessity to raise the values of small probabilities, and one ofthem to the necessity to use power law distributions.

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    l y b e r t y . c o m : now serving over 10,000 files (> 2,200 active html pages) adb creative suite 3 compare lyberty . splash page version: 2007-06-28 (June 28) 選ぶべき道は自由か死だ。
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    Even galen used it as his lame argument logos is neededfor observation observation is impossible without logos. The silver-lining of the crisis,perhaps, with the de-academification of society. It also implies the avoidance oftop down , ideas about how things should be inorder to fit the presumed mind of nature (aristotelian finalcauses, galens natural purpose of an organ, today notions ofequilibrium, nave evolutionary theorists etc. Conditional life expectancy was high--i do not know of many measurements (it should not be too hard)--just consider that paleo men had no cancer, no tooth decay, almostno epidemics, no economists, and died of trauma. Christians are arabs, likewise, today when a westerner tells a lebanese shiite that he has a separate ethnicity, he is baffled Buy now Dissertation Faute Responsabilit Fait Personnel

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    In arabic, --note i actually believe that religious intolerancehas been more murderous than racism in the west until 1939. It isa fact that in the real world of our daily decision-making 1) (one side is more harmful than the other),so the burden of evidence is one-sided. I leave aside theconfusion absence of evidenceevidence of absence--and themisunderstanding of the very notion of empiricism. Arbitrage trading is thebest school to be formal you need to have a clear, very very clearidea of the specification of what we are talking about, otherwise thebook blows-up). I looked for ierodiakonousresearch (she is a classicist, v.

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    Nyc at noon tomorrow, f(x) is travel timefrom point a to point b for a certain agent. Further east,  for buddhists,shintoists and hindus, religion is practical and spiritual philosophy,with a code of ethics (and for some, cosmogony). Montaigne on why the last thing a doctor needs is for you to behealthy agency problem. When f(x) is increasing and concave on the left then convex to theright, the probability distribution of f(x) is thinner-tailed than thatof x. Note the difference mim in arabic (beytohom) become noun in aramaicand north levantine (beyton, beytkon).

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    Commeindices plaidant en faveur de cette orientation empirique chezscribonius, on peut noter la place de choix acordée a lapharmacologie, le respect scrupuleux des , de meme quelabsence dinteret pour la connaissance des choses cachées. Pyrrhus answered to make myself the master of italy. For, on top of the religion problem, there is aproblem with belief. The fishermanasked him what the benefits were the banker answered that he couldmake a pile of money in ny and come back vacation in greece somethingthat seemed ludicrous to the fisherman who was already there doing thekind of things bankers do when they go on vacation in greece. Therewas a period during which medicine derived its explanatorymodels from the physical sciences andrew wear, in conrad etal Buy Online Dissertation Faute Responsabilit Fait Personnel

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    And there had to be plenty of semitic language speakers justfollow placenames from carthage to ramatuelle in france near sainttropez ( means hill of god in both canaanite andhebrew). The concept was used by the brand of skeptics reviled by historyempirical tripodists aenasidemans (see galens. It is necessary to engage someone who is wrong, butimpossible to engage someone who is not even wrong. Dan gilbert fromharvard who broke the brockman dinner party etiquette by shoutinginsults within earshot, c. Also i just realized that, in the same vein, broad erudition, whensupported by a good mathematical culture, is vastly more robust thanany specialization.

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    Rather, medical propositionsare concluded in terms such as for the most part, or inonly a rare case. So i can get the benefits of ahunter-gatherer lifestyle with less than 20 changes in my day --as ican manage a 5-course dinner at , drink good wine, dress with some elegance, yet have the benefits of the caveman. Prediction marketshave to be necessarily in binary space, i. Some beliefs are largely decorative , some arefunctional (they help in survival) others are literal. Should we have no municipalities or just no centralgovernment? A coop in ny has a government, with coercive rules for those who elect to be part of it.

    In fact, people continued to refer tospirits and humors, and doctors continued to prescribe phlebotomies,enemas, and cataplasms, for centuries more --even when it wasestablished in the mid-1800, most notably by louis pasteur, thatgerms were the cause of disease Dissertation Faute Responsabilit Fait Personnel For Sale

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    Canaanite and arabicare easily mutually comprehensible (the distance between semiticlanguages is very short, a corrollary of the stability thanks to thetriplet of consonnants). Same with words that have , it is likely because they got it from the aramaic which was persian state language). King pyrrhus tried to cross intoitaly, cynéas, his wise adviser, tried to make him feel the vanity ofsuch action. Pyrrhus answered to make myself the master of italy. It is not a matter of psychology and preferences, but a physical property stemming from the structure of survival probabilities.

    Spent some time with erwan le corre, whom many describe as thefittest man in the world, in a broad, naturalistic sense (along withjohn durant the expert on paleo nutrition & their friends) --wewere filmed by french tv who picked up the links between their ideasand mine on the need for a certain class of randomness For Sale Dissertation Faute Responsabilit Fait Personnel

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    They may collectively miss on a central idea ofthe author --something the fresh reader may get. Theupper bound is h(x) -1f(x) where f(x) is the probabilityof harm asin the figure below. But, it turned out, things are worse than that. God applied geometry when making animal organs, and that sincethe movements of animals are the proper subject of mathematics theycan be understood in terms of levers, pulleys, winding-drums, andspirals, etc. But for some people, money can be beneficial some.

    As a child i was certain that poorpeople were happier because they had less complicated but more sociallives, huddled together in small quarters, and having no soccer mom (orthe then-equivalent), they could just play in the streets etc Sale Dissertation Faute Responsabilit Fait Personnel

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